Thomas Wolfgarten


BlueSky: @thomaswolfgarten.bsky.social, X: @TomWolfgarten

Computational Epidemiologist & Behavioural Data Scientist
I model human behavior to predict and mitigate global health crises.

Currently a pre-viva PhD candidate at the University of Warwick’s Institute for Global Pandemic Planning (IGPP), my work bridges mathematical epidemiology and behavioural science. I specialise in transforming massive, individual-level mobile phone location datasets into actionable, infection risk models.

What I do:

• Large-Scale Simulation: I engineer high-performance, stochastic simulations written in Julia and deployed across AWS infrastructure.


• Advanced Statistical Modelling: Leveraging my background as a statistician (University of Warwick) and economist (University of Cologne), I build models that capture complex human dynamics, especially behavioral changes at critical points.


• Cross-Disciplinary Collaboration: I work at the intersection of Warwick's SBIDER and WBS's Behavioural Science group, supervised by Matt Keeling and Neil Stewart.

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Publications:

• Upcoming Paper: "Forecasting Pandemic Trajectories Using Individual-Level Location Data" - This core thesis work details the methodology of scaling from raw, individual-level location pings to full-scale stochastic pandemic forecasting.


• Policy Impact: Author of the ASEF PHN Policy Brief: "Pandemic and the Economy – A Pandemic-Resilient Society" (A report for the Helsinki conference of the Asia-Europe Public Health Network, 2023).